With at least six questions in one way or another relating to the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) Journey to Greatness strategy asked by Parliamentarians, two seasoned South African defence analysts/observers warn Cabinet approval is no guarantee it will become reality.

The Journey to Greatness is a 30-year strategy premised on increasing allocations – hopefully annually and when medium term expenditure is on the financial to-do list – from National Treasury (NT) to the SANDF and its sister organisation the Department of Defence (DoD) – to ultimately reach at least 2.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), up from .8% at present. This level of funding will allow the national defence force to properly execute its mandate, those who researched and wrote what appears to still be a work in progress have it. This mandate, among others, runs from border protection and integrity – on land, in the air and at sea – through to supporting the SA Police Service (SAPS) and other government departments/entities as well as, if ordered by the South African president, be part of peacekeeping and peace support missions. It can be summarised as “to defend and protect the Republic of South Africa, its territorial integrity and its people in accordance with the Constitution and international law”.

At present, the Journey to Greatness has the nod of approval from Cabinet – something made public by Minister in The Presidency Ntshavheni Khumbudzo on 9 May. Next step is Parliament and oversight scrutiny from both the Joint Standing Committee on Defence (JSCD) and the Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV). Unconfirmed indications are at some time during the current Parliamentary third term “a full profile of strategic documents approved by Cabinet on 6 May” will be tabled in scheduled JSCD and PCDMV meetings. This is as per a Motshekga reply to a Carl Niehaus (Economic Freedom Fighters) question.


While not wanting to ring alarm bells, respected military aviation researcher, author and knowledgeable observer of the wider South African defence sector Dean Wingrin pulled no punches saying the Journey to Greatness “as a document is an exercise in wishful thinking”. A similar opinion came from former Member of Parliament and shadow defence and military veterans minister Kobus Marais who asks is the JTG “an idea, initiative or viable strategy”.

Both point to almost zero implementation of the 2015 Defence Review, which started life four defence and military veterans ministers – Lindiwe Sisulu, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, Thandi Modise and Angie Motshekga – ago.

Marais, now putting his experience and knowledge to consultant use, told DefenceWeb “failure to implement even basic elements of the 2015 Defence Review — including its milestones and funding commitments — is a sobering precedent” while Wingrin was even more forthright. He sees the Journey to Greatness documentation “sitting on the shelf gathering dust next to the 2015 Defence Review”.

Putting the Journey to Greatness differently, Marais is concerned about it being either an initiative or a strategy. This, according to him, means nothing as what counts is whether government has the political will and – more importantly the fiscal capacity – to implement and fully resource it.

“The critical issue is what follows after approval, if it happens. Without firm, multi-year funding commitments from National Treasury backed by Cabinet, the Journey to Greatness risks becoming another well-intentioned policy document that is overtaken by fiscal realities and competing government priorities especially in this – yet another – election year.

“There is little doubt the SANDF requires substantial additional resources if it is to reverse the erosion of its capabilities. The challenge is defence is competing in an increasingly constrained fiscal environment (consistently low GDP) against social protection, healthcare, education, unemployment, infrastructure and other pressing political priorities. These are legitimate demands on the state, but they also make it difficult to see where the substantial and sustained additional funding and resources required by the JTG will come from.

“This is where the experience of the 2015 Defence Review becomes particularly relevant. A strategy without the resources and political commitment essential to execute it ultimately becomes aspirational rather than transformative. The danger is the Journey to Greatness could follow the same trajectory: ambitious objectives, articulated requirements, but insufficient resources and funding to convert those objectives into operational capabilities.”

Marais maintains the real test of the Journey to Greatness initiative/strategy and the language in it will take second place to whether National Treasury allocates the money, whether parliament approves and government sustains that commitment over successive multi-year budget cycles and whether the SANDF can translate those resources into measurable improvements in readiness and capability.

“Until that happens, the JTG risks becoming another chapter in the growing gap between South Africa’s stated defence ambitions and the resources it is actually prepared to commit to achieving them and becoming another well intended dust gathering document,” he told DefenceWeb.

Wingrin joins the former public representative in his pessimistic outlook saying “much like the still current but now antiquated 2015 Defence Review, [the Journey to Greatness] is predicated on the assumption that suitable funding will be made available to the SANDF. The 2015 Defence Review was approved by Cabinet, as has the Journey to Greatness, yet the SANDF has received no meaningful increase in funding. On the contrary, defence funding actually declined dramatically in real terms”.

“Even the current budget provides for defence expenditure to increase by only 1.5% over the next three years. This is below the inflation rate of approximately 2.8% and equates to less than 0.8% of GDP. In real terms the defence budget will continue to shrink.

“The Journey to Greatness takes the SANDF through a 30-year plan, ultimately targeting an increase in defence expenditure from the current 0.68% of GDP to 4.6%. While the SANDF should perhaps be congratulated for having the foresight to look 30 years into the future, experience tells us that even forecasting five or ten years ahead is fraught with uncertainty.

“Despite multiple meetings with National Treasury and a reported instruction from President Ramaphosa as Commander-in-Chief, the SANDF has yet to see any indication Treasury is considering a meaningful and sustained increase in defence expenditure. What we have seen instead is Treasury demanding the SANDF reduce expenditure and personnel, implement early retirement processes and refrain from replacing personnel who leave through retirement.

“For a [government] department that relies on large numbers of trained personnel to fulfil an increasingly demanding mandate, while simultaneously requiring its equipment and systems to be maintained, upgraded and eventually replaced in order to keep pace with modern warfare and maintain even a degree of parity with near-peer opponents, this is effectively a death knell.

“For years, successive SANDF Chiefs and others have warned of the potential collapse of the SANDF. These warnings have been accompanied by assurances from the Minister of Defence and the President. Yet there remains no indication in the medium term expenditure framework (MTEF) of a meaningful increase in defence expenditure relative to GDP.”

On the Journey to Greatness Wingrin has it further its phase one provides for “limited priority interventions” and requires an immediate R9 billion kickstart, equivalent to approximately 15% of the current defence budget. The subsequent milestone alpha phase envisages defence expenditure reaching 1.5% of GDP over the 2027/28 to 2030/31 period, which he describes “as simply wishful thinking”.

“Phase three envisages defence expenditure reaching 2.4% of GDP, while the final phase sets a target of 4.6% of GDP, in the realm of fantasy,” is his take on this hoped for growth in the defence budget.

Wingrin is critical of the mechanics that went into the JTG saying it appears to have been developed primarily internally in the SANDF. “Given the scale and ambition of the proposal, one would have expected substantive input from external specialists, including economists, financial experts, academics, defence researchers and strategic analysts.”

He also criticises National Treasury, currently under the control of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, saying the holder of government’s purse strings “appears to not fully appreciate the DoD operates in a manner fundamentally different from most other government departments. Defence is, in many respects, an insurance policy. You cannot simply stop paying the premium for several years and expect the policy to remain fully valid when the crisis eventually occurs”.

“Treasury has effectively missed its premium payments for more than 15 years. The consequence is the SANDF’s ability to fulfil its Constitutional mandate has progressively deteriorated, even as it has increasingly been called upon to compensate for the shortcomings of other failing State departments and State-owned enterprises.

“Unless Treasury has suddenly seen the light, robbed Peter to pay Paul and South Africa’s economy has somehow recovered to levels of growth not seen in decades, defence expenditure is likely to remain broadly constrained at current levels.” This he sees leaving the Journey to Greatness document sitting on the shelf gathering dust next to the 2015 Defence Review.

Source: https://defenceweb.co.za/sa-defence-sa-defence/sandf-journey-to-greatness-strategy-seen-as-an-exercise-in-wishful-thinking/